Research example · October 28, 2026 snapshot

ERCOT daily peak load

An intraday estimate of the highest hourly TOTAL load for a Texas grid operating day. The project pairs source data and historical testing with Kalshi's daily peak-demand thresholds.

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Historical test

What the data shows

Errors are in megawatts (MW). A lower mean absolute error is better.

2026 archive holdout273 daysSame completed hour used on each date

Model mean error2,391 MWLater ERCOT archive

Seven-day peak baseline3,863 MWSame holdout dates

October first-report error5,268 MW27 source-aligned dates

The October first-report error is higher than the archive holdout error. The model has not established a trading advantage. Dated contract quotes and forward predictions must be evaluated after fees and spreads.

Source and settlement

The contract resolves Yes only when the highest hourly TOTAL in the first complete Actual System Load by Forecast Zone CSV is strictly above its threshold. The model's long historical test uses ERCOT's later hourly archive, which can contain revisions.

In the initial source check, 620 finalized threshold outcomes matched the retained first daily reports. Five dates overlapped the later archive; their mean absolute peak difference was 78 MW.

Forecast inputs

The current-day display supplies the latest completed hourly load and the highest load already observed. The model blends the typical remaining rise from the previous seven days with eight matching weekdays.

ERCOT's published short-term forecast is shown beside the model in the private workspace for comparison. Historical forecast vintages have not yet been assembled for a fair combined-model test.

Method

How the research is maintained

Collect

Retain the annual hourly archives and the first complete daily CSV for each operating date.

Estimate

Use only earlier days to estimate the remaining rise from the latest completed hour.

Validate

Tune on 2024–25, hold out 2026, and check first-report outcomes separately.

Track

Log forward estimates and dated market quotes before evaluating returns after costs.

Source record

Published data and contract

This is a dated research example, not a live forecast or a recommendation to trade. The owner workspace contains the adjustable scenario control, quote snapshots, and forward log.

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