Project examples
Six research projects show how a measurable outcome can be matched to source data, tested against a simple comparison, and tracked beside a listed contract. They are project examples, not client engagements or realized trading returns.
Discuss a research projectResearch areas
Results below are dated research snapshots. Source data, contracts, and prices change.
Daily national screening counts are forecast from published TSA history and checked against listed passenger-count thresholds.
Main Lodge monthly snowfall history bounds the December 24 result at each listed threshold; some past outcomes remain unresolved from monthly data.
Launch records and monthly pace support a forecast of the number of completed launches in a calendar month.
AAA's state regular-gas average is tracked against a year-end price threshold.
Netflix's published weekly Global Shows (English) chart supplies the outcome and view-count history.
Hourly Texas grid load is used to estimate the day's highest reported TOTAL and compare it with daily MW thresholds.
Model estimates are not verified trading returns. A client project can include historical tests, dated quote capture, probability calibration, cost review, documentation, and a handoff process. Scope depends on data availability and the contract's exact settlement rule.
Project scope
Confirm the outcome, settlement source, and available contract.
Collect historical data and preserve source versions and timestamps.
Compare a model with a simple baseline on later outcomes.
Document updates, decision controls, and the client's operating process.