Research example · October 28, 2026 snapshot
Mammoth Main Lodge snowfall
Historical Main Lodge snowfall is compared with the December 24 season-total thresholds listed on Kalshi. The available archive is monthly, so many past December 24 outcomes cannot be determined exactly.
All research examplesHistorical test
What the data shows
Completed Main Lodge seasons from 1969–70 through 2025–26. The rolling test uses nine listed thresholds.
On the 194 outcomes that monthly data can prove, the model scored worse than the all-prior-seasons baseline. The other 139 outcomes were excluded because the December 24 total is unknown. These results do not establish a trading advantage or a realized return.
Outcome and contract
The December 2026 contracts resolve on whether the official Main Lodge Season Total from October 1 through December 24 is strictly above each strike. The specified reading is the value recorded at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on December 24.
Base depth, summit depth, short-period snowfall, and pre-October snow are outside this outcome. The contract has not settled in this dated snapshot.
What the archive can prove
October plus November gives a lower bound for the December 24 total. Adding the full December month gives an upper bound. An outcome is confirmed above only if the lower bound exceeds the strike; it is confirmed below only if the upper bound is at or below it.
If a strike falls between those bounds, the monthly archive cannot determine the December 24 result. It should not be scored as a win or loss.
Examples at the 95-inch threshold
| Season | By Dec 1 | By Dec 31 | Dec 24 status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–11 | 98 in. | 307 in. | Confirmed above |
| 2023–24 | 14 in. | 26 in. | Confirmed below |
| 2024–25 | 65 in. | 104 in. | Unresolved |
These rows illustrate the bound rule. They are selected examples, not the full historical test.
Method
How the research is tested
Collect
Normalize the official monthly Main Lodge table and exclude pre-October snow.
Bound
For each season and strike, identify what the October–November and October–December totals prove.
Compare
Use the previous 20 seasons for each rolling estimate and compare with all prior seasons on the same provable outcomes.
Track
Save dated Main Lodge reports, weather forecasts, and executable quotes before testing returns after costs.
Historical range
Threshold examples
The range is based on the most recent 20 completed seasons, 2006–07 through 2025–26.
| Contract strike | Certainly above by Dec 1 | Possibly above by Dec 24 |
|---|---|---|
| Above 35 in. | 60% | 95% |
| Above 95 in. | 5% | 55% |
| Above 165 in. | 0% | 20% |
These are empirical bounds, not precise current-season probabilities. They do not incorporate a dated storm forecast or current-season conditions.
Client project scope
Controls and handoff
A client implementation would be reviewed against the exact settlement source and available data.
Adjustable controls
Potential controls include the season lookback, contract strike, treatment of unresolved historical outcomes, and a documented weather-forecast input. Changes would require a new test on later seasons or prospective outcomes.
Operating process
The deliverable can include source refreshes, saved forecast vintages, quote capture, settlement checks, and instructions for a client team. Exact historical December 24 reports would strengthen validation if they can be obtained.
Source record
Published data and contract
This is a dated research example, not a live forecast or recommendation to trade. The private workspace holds the current report and quote snapshots. No realized trading return is claimed.
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